2012 Malian Presidential Election

With the Malian presidential election slated to take place on April 29th, there are a lot of stories swirling about the contenders.  But will the elections even take place (article in French) in April with all the unrest in the north?  Unlikely.  Nonetheless, here are a few links I have found useful to learning more about the candidates (and an election guide with how the election process works/Mali's government structure):

Dioncounda Traoré (source)

Soumaila Cissé (source)

IBK (source)

Modibo Sidibé (source)

Dioncounda Traoré (his blog, his CV - he's a fencer!) , 
Soumaïla Cissé, (his blog, he studied in Grenoble, too!, his crew),
Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, (his bio.  According to this poll - he's the favored candidate among the Bamakois),
Modibo Sidibé, (an independent candidate)
Yeah Samaké.  (He's Mormon! and an unlikely candidate...)

This article outlines the four major candidates.  However, the author notes that this election will not produce a decidedly different leader than the president currently in power, ATT:

"While this presents an invaluable opportunity for the country to consolidate its democracy, however, the actual impact of the election on ordinary Malians may be rather minimal. To begin with, the four clear frontrunners are all male, all of a similar age, all educated in France, all friends with the president, all establishment figures, and all of a similar political orientation." 

 An informal polling of my colleagues shows the following leanings:

IBK %61
Modibo Sidibé %23
Dioncounda Traoré %8
Soumaila Cissé %8

(granted, my polling sample was incredibly tiny at only 13 people...)

What do you think about Mali's candidates?  Who do you think will win and when do you think the elections take place?